Professor Helmut Norpoth made headlines this week when he used a statistical model he perfected at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University to predict who will win the presidential race this year.
According to Conservative Tribune, Norpoth found that Donald Trump has a 97 percent of beating Hillary Clinton, and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders, if he wins the Republican nomination.
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent (of the popular vote),” Norpoth said. “This is almost too much to believe. The probability of that is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’”
Should Trump not get the GOP nomination, Norpoth found that Republicans have a 61% chance of getting someone in the White House. Specifically, he predicted that Clinton would beat both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by a 0.3 percent margin in a general election.
When applied to every presidential election since 1912, Norpoth’s model correctly predicts the president 96.1 percent of the time. The only one it failed to predict was John F. Kennedy’s win in 1960.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” he told Stoney Brook’s school newspaper, The Statesman.
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