Last night, Ted Cruz shocked the country by coming out on top in the Iowa caucus, but he is still not the person the betting odds predict will secure the GOP nomination.
According to Allen B West, betting odds have a history of being better predictors of candidate statistics than polls do because they take in a wider variety of factors. These factors include inside information and wisdom of the crowds.
You won’t believe who the betting odds believe will secure the GOP nomination, and who they say will make it to the White House in November…
Fox News’ John Stossel and Maxim Lott run the website electionbettingodds.com, which aggregates betting statistics on candidates and can therefore calculate their odds of winning the election.
Clinton’s odds of winning the Democrat primary was 81 percent, actually up 1 percent from last week. Despite Bernie’s close race, bettors don’t think this means what the pundits do.Where bettors are revising their odds is in who the Republican nominee will be. Last night’s caucus turned the odds on their head.
While Trump was given a 42.6 percent chance of winning the Republican primary prior to the caucus, his odds tanked to 26.5 percent. Despite Cruz’s victory, his odds only rose 1.2 percentage points to 12.6 percent.And for the big winner? Look below:
Despite placing third, the caucus caused Rubio’s odds to skyrocket.
The media wants to paint the race as a battle between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, but don’t take their word for it. The people who bothered to put their money where their mouths are saying otherwise.
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